Northern lights forecast and aurora oval map

Set a place — by search, by “Near me”, or by clicking the map. The tool reads the aurora probability from the NOAA OVATION model for your point, works out when nautical twilight starts, pulls in the cloud forecast and checks whether the moon will be above the horizon. The result is a short verdict from “unlikely” to “likely”, plus an explanation of what exactly is in the way.

They are different experiences. An aurora overhead appears as bright arcs and rays; an aurora 500–1000 km poleward of you sits as a greenish glow right on the horizon and is often visible only in a long exposure. Emission around 100 km altitude is geometrically visible out to roughly 1000 km, which is where the second figure and the dashed line on the map come from.

The auroral oval is anchored to the magnetic pole, not the geographic one. That is why Anchorage at 61°N sees the aurora far more often than Saint Petersburg at almost the same geographic latitude — their geomagnetic latitudes differ. The “aurora reaches here at Kp ≥ N” threshold is therefore computed from geomagnetic latitude, using the table published by the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

The aurora is fainter than daylight and twilight, so even a strong storm is invisible until the sky darkens: the tool computes the nautical-twilight window and says plainly when white nights or polar day make it hopeless. Cloud hides the aurora completely, and a bright moon above the horizon drowns a faint glow — both sit next to the probability instead of being hidden.

Yes. OVATION is computed from satellite solar-wind data rather than a network of ground stations, so it covers the whole globe evenly — the Russian Arctic, Scandinavia, Canada and Alaska all render at the same fidelity. The southern oval over Antarctica, Tasmania and southern New Zealand is one button away on the map.

The oval is a nowcast roughly 30–90 minutes ahead and refreshes every few minutes. The three-day part is NOAA’s Kp forecast, which describes geomagnetic activity in general rather than one particular display. That is why the verdict is phrased as a probability with its blockers listed, rather than as a promise that the lights will appear.